Oscars 2012 - The Will Win, Should Win Game

The Oscars are tomorrow night (Sunday, February 26th - ABC's red carpet coverage begins at 7:00pm) , which basically rivals Christmas as a single day that is filled with too much love and crazy and food and joy to handle. Unfortunately, I cannot watch the telecast live this year due to a swim meet. I don't want to talk about it... Below are my choices for who WILL win, and who SHOULD win. There will be no mentions of snubs from the full nominee list (if you need a refresher, here's the official Oscar site). Listing my predictions makes me feel very vulnerable? Self-concious? Wonky? Hopefully I'm right about most of these. Hopefully I'm wrong about a few; nothing is more exciting than a big Oscar upset. This is just my last chance to be a cynical asshole at the very end of awards hoopla, and present my unnecessary opinions. Duh.

Best Picture
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Tree of Life
The Artist has had a near-flawless run on the Road to the Oscars, and there's almost no chance that it can lose here; the film is wonderfully charming, a strangely modern feat in old fashioned storytelling. I still think Hugo pays better homage to Golden Hollywood, but I have no problem with The Artist taking home the glory. I'm simply more in the camp that Best Picture should go to a bigger movie, a movie that accomplishes something on a much wider scope. The Tree of Life is my favorite movie of the year; I'll have to be content settling for the wonderful inclusion in this race. If you want to talk about The Tree of Life forever and ever, just let me know! A DINOSAUR!

Best Director
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
The Academy almost always pairs Best Director and Best Picture, and Hazanavicius has had a runaway year with his nimble wit and playful direction. Terrence Malick should be winning awards for crafting the most intricate cinematic experience of the year. Don't listen to Sean Penn.

Best Actor
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean Dujardin has charmed the pants off of Hollywood, from his adorable acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes and the SAGS to a surprise dancing appearance on SNL; I'm pegging an "upset" over George Clooney (GEROGE DOESN'T DESERVE IT THOUGH I DIDN'T REALLY LIKE THE DESCENDANTS CAN YOU TELL). Brad Pitt, combined with his performance in The Tree of Life (drinking game - take a shot every time I mention my unending love for The Tree of Life), shows that he's at the peak of his career. I think there will be an Oscar for Pitt in the coming years, but I wish he still had the momentum to nab the trophy. Sigh. This is probably the closest, most exciting race of the year.

Best Actress
Will & Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Viola Davis gave the most honest and heart-wrenching performance of 2011. The Academy loves big emotional performances. It all adds up! I would love if Davis and Meryl Streep could work out the elusive tie (last time that happened? 1968, with Katherine Hepburn and Barbara Streisand), but I've been ranting and raving about Davis' performance since The Help arrived in August. She hit me hard. I ugly cried a lot. A LOT.

Best Supporting Actor
Will & Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Christopher Plummer could win this rather weak category on career reverence alone. It doesn't hurt that he gives a near-perfect performance in this quiet (and somewhat under-appreciated) little movie.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help
I love Octavia Spencer, and have absolutely no problem with her awards season domination, but Jessica Chastain is the breakout star of The Help's exceptional ensemble. Still, there's something perfect in the chance that Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer could (will?) win together... Also, for your viewing pleasure after Octavia wins - a song from a fictional The Help: The Musical, based on that scene with Ocatvia and the pie and poop.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Should Win: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Woody Allen is back on his A-game with the sweet nostalgia of Midnight in Paris (bring that magic back to Manhattan, Woody!). Yet, Farhadi's screenplay for A Separation is mind-blowingly intricate, with enough shades of grey that post-viewing conversation is bound to be passionate and frustrating; this is the first foreign nominee in this category since The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which is a feat in and of itself.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants 
Should Win: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
Hollywood loves Payne. I do not. Zaillian and Sorkin should win for crafting a riveting sports movie, featuring big scenes about math (I also hate math, but not as much as I hate Payne), that ultimately has nothing to do with baseball.

Best Animated Feature
Will & Should Win: Rango
I will throw my television (or rather, my Blackberry, since I'll be "watching" the Oscars via live tweets...) out a window if Rango doesn't achieve victory here. Yes, it's that serious.

Best Foreign Film
Will & Should Win: A Separation
I haven't seen anything else nominated. Oh well. A Separation is that good.

Best Original Score:
Will & Should Win: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
The music is basically a character in this film. Since it's silent. Almost a no-brainer, right?